French Open 2025: Why Qinwen Zheng Is the Most Likely Women’s Champion

The arrival of Roland‑Garros at the end of May marks the defining moment of the clay‑court season. The French Open is not only the second Grand Slam of the year, but also the ultimate examination of patience, endurance, and mental resilience on the slowest surface in the sport.

The central question heading into Paris is simple: will Iga Świątek’s dominance at Roland‑Garros continue in 2025?

Why Iga Świątek Is Vulnerable in 2025

Unlike previous seasons, Świątek arrives in Paris without momentum.

- No tournament titles in 2025  
- A world ranking of No. 5  
- Ongoing distractions away from the court  
- Clear technical regression during matches  

Even setting off‑court matters aside, her on‑court level has dropped sharply by her own extraordinary standards. The most pressing issue is her serve—particularly the second serve—which has become a recurring point of attack for opponents.

Recent examples are alarming:

- Rome: Won just 22.2% of second‑serve points against Danielle Collins  
- Madrid: Struggled to reach 40% of service points won against Coco Gauff  
- Miami: Managed only 24% of second‑serve points in defeat to Eala  

On the slow clay of Paris, Świątek will hope for damp, heavy conditions to neutralise aggressive returners. That may help—but it is not a solution. Her serve is currently too vulnerable to withstand sustained pressure over two weeks.

As for Jelena Ostapenko, Świątek will be hoping they land in opposite halves of the draw.

DTM’s position is clear: avoid Świątek as a French Open champion in 2025.

The Leading Contenders

The most likely winner will come from this group:

- Aryna Sabalenka  
- Coco Gauff
- Mirra Andreeva  
- Jasmine Paolini  
- Qinwen Zheng  

Each has a credible path to the title depending on the draw. But one name stands out.

Why Qinwen Zheng Is the Standout Pick

DTM’s preferred champion for 2025 is Qinwen Zheng.

Her recent form on clay suggests she is peaking at exactly the right time. In Rome, she defeated Aryna Sabalenka—a psychologically significant victory that removed a growing head‑to‑head barrier. With that breakthrough secured, she will arrive in Paris fearing no one.

Zheng has long been on DTM’s radar.

- In 2022, she took the opening set off Świątek at Roland‑Garros  
- In 2024, she won Olympic gold on the Paris clay  
- Career clay record: 87 wins, 27 losses (76%) 

These are not coincidence stats. They reflect a player who is completely at home on slow clay courts.

This season feels pivotal. Zheng is physically strong, mentally mature, and tactically well suited to Paris. If she does not win a Grand Slam now, the opportunity may never be better.

Match‑Up Advantages in Paris

Zheng’s game translates exceptionally well against the other leading contenders.

- Against Gauff, her recent Rome semi‑final could have gone either way—but slower Paris conditions favour Zheng  
- Against Sabalenka, heavy clay blunts raw power and rewards controlled aggression  
- Against Paolini, Zheng holds a 4–0 head‑to‑head record  
- Against Andreeva, she has already proven she can handle the moment  

Seedings mean Zheng is likely to face a top‑four player in the quarter‑finals—most likely Paolini or Pegula—where she would start as a clear favourite.

Her main vulnerability historically has been early‑round lapses. But her current seeding protects her, effectively giving her a draw similar to a top‑two seed.

If Qinwen Zheng reaches the latter stages, history shows she raises her level.

Why the Outsiders Fall Short

Beyond the top five, many names have been mentioned—but sustaining seven matches in Paris is a different challenge.

Clay‑court records over the last 52 weeks:

- Elina Svitolina: 17–4  
- Diana Shnaider: 13–6  
- Marta Kostyuk: 10–6  
- Peyton Stearns: 10–5  
- Olga Danilović: 12–6  

Each could upset a top seed. None appear capable of winning four or five consecutive high‑pressure matches.

Second‑serve vulnerability remains the common weakness. Apart from Danilović, none possess the service consistency required to survive the slow Paris conditions against elite returners.

Final Assessment

The French Open is won as much by draw position and match‑up management as by form. The player who faces the fewest emotionally and physically draining three‑set battles will hold the edge.

Based on form, surface suitability, mental readiness, and statistical trends:

Our most likely winners for the 2025 French Open

1. Qinwen Zheng
2. Coco Gauff
3. Aryna Sabalenka 

There are plenty of banana skins in the draw, and Paris always produces surprises—but all indicators point in one direction.

Qinwen Zheng has never been better positioned to lift her first Grand Slam trophy.