The unpredictability of the WTA Tour adds excitement to the AO

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Hello, podcasters.
Thank you so much for coming

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back again.
Here we are again tonight, Katie

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and.
CTN.

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And this is the podcast
dedicated specifically to WTA

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World Tennis, created for the
purists who love the details and

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the curious listener who wants
to understand the game more

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deeply.
We breakdown matches, tactics,

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trends and talk honestly about
players and storylines shaping

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the tour.
I'm Katie, grew up in Wimbledon.

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I worked in hospitality chalets
in the Rimbull and tennis at

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Members enclosure bar when I was
a student long before QR code.

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So you just sneak over the vents
and watch play after school most

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days.
And tennis has always been a

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part of my life, as it has for
you, DTM.

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Yes, I started playing tennis
when I was just knee high to a

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grasshopper.
I'm about the age of 2 and I

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played throughout the 70s and
80s, all the junior tournaments,

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National League.
Went to Bishop Abbey as a 10

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year old and was actually quite
good.

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You.
Still.

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Are some of my peers, by the
time they're eighteen, were

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playing satellites and
travelling as far-flung places

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in search of points.
And I tried, I did a bit of

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coaching, I had a bit of semi
professional playing, but

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ultimately I wasn't cut out for
it and I became a teacher

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instead.
But I stayed in tennis and I

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played and watched and we've
been to been to Wimbledon

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etcetera, when we followed
tennis avidly so.

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So together, we combine lived
experience and expert analysis

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to talk about women's tennis in
a way that's informed,

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accessible and engaging, whether
you're here for a deep tactical

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insight or simply to want to
understand why matches unfold

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the way they do.
Welcome to talk dust.

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Let's get into today's episode.
I think we're reviewing the

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first week of the Australian
First ETM.

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Yeah.
Main draw started a week ago and

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here we are middle Sunday and
we've had a lot of matches

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completed.
In fact, more matches played in

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the first week than will be
played in the second week as

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each round the number of players
halves each time and we're now

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at the last 16 almost quarter
final stage.

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So a great first week.
I sat here last week and said

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these potential matchups were
the ones to really sit down and

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get your popcorn out for.
And I remember saying just in

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case people done this that
didn't understand it, those

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matches might not happen unless
who you're expecting to wins

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earlier in the rounds.
So what happened DTM?

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Yes, of the four matches I was
looking forward to, only one

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actually happened.
Well, there's tennis for you.

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Exactly, but just prove how
unpredictable the WTA tour is.

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Which?
Makes it so much more

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interesting.
Yes, lots of upsets and lots of

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close matches even if the seeded
player went through.

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So of the four matches I was
looking forward to, only Kalin

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Skaier actually met up with
eager Swan Tech, which was a

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great match in the third round
and interesting all three sets.

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Yes, it went to three sets, but
all three sets ended up that's.

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Amazing.
It is.

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Which order did it go in?
Yes, eager Swantec won the 1st

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and the last set 6/1 and and
Kalin Skaia won the Middlesex

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61.
Quite a reverse.

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I think you've written A blog on
the website shortdustmedia.co.uk

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about the six one, The Curse of
the six One win.

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Yes, it happens quite a lot
where one player wins a set 61

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but goes on to lose the match
and there was another case in

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point.
So really, we have to start with

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the Brits and not a not a great
week I'm afraid.

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God loves a Trier though.
Yes, and a cartel was probably

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the most informed Brit coming in
of the week and she had a tough

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draw against Colin Skye and
obviously lost because I've

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mentioned Colin Skye got through
to the third round.

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She was disappointed.
Not her best game, but I think

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she'll have a good season
nonetheless.

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I'm sure she will.
Then we had Katie Bolter, who's

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got a great year getting
married, Alex D Minor, as I'm

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sure lots of you know out there.
Although I just don't know when

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they're going to have the time
to do it.

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I'd love to know which
tournament they're not going to

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play in.
I mean, it's a busy, busy

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calendar.
Isn't it?

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It is, but I'm sure it's going
to happen.

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I hope so.
And Katie's gone back to London.

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I heard Alex Demanor saying on
court today she's flying back.

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So it sounds like preparations
are continuingly happening

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without the groom, as is the way
with weddings I think can be.

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But she had a good second set.
Maybe the first set she wants us

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to get against Bench, but the
second set gives her hope for

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the season as Bench was one of
the former players.

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So 2 Brits out.
We've just left Fran Jones, who

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unfortunately withdrew halfway
through her first round.

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That was a shame, wasn't?
It he was just not 100% fit and

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couldn't continue, which left
one Brit to actually win the

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first round match and then
Radical name.

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Yeah, unfortunately, as we now
know, she lost second round to

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Potipova, who actually gave
Sabalenka her closest match in

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the first week.
She's having a great tournament,

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isn't she, having just become
Austrian?

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Yes, she pushed Sabalenka to two
tie break sets, which has to be

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mentioned because Sabalenka has
been reported as having 20 odd

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consecutive winning tie breaks
in a row.

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But I'd like to highlight for
those of you who believe

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everything in the press that if
you look at the BTA finals in

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Riyadh in November, which was
the last big event, it's

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considered an Invitational
because the 8 best players over

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the season are invited.
So they're not really counting

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it as a WTA event.
We're back in a beat.

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Sabalenko in the final and won
the second set tie breaks. 7

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love.
So for me, Abelenka has lost a

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tie break and so he's careful.
You can't believe everything you

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read.
I.

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Did promise you the depth of the
detail chalk dusters?

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But she has not just beaten
Potipova in two tie breaks, as

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we now know.
Waking up this morning, she beat

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your girl and Boko in the fourth
round. 6176 another tie break.

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But she really showed up on Boko
and she's just playing out of

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her socks.
Yes, and we'll look at some

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stats around winners and
unforced errors, which isn't the

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entirety of the match.
It's a really good indicator and

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that ratio today in the
Sabalenka and Boko match really

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shows some really good stats for
both players, which is in

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contrast to some of the other
matches and that will come up

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later in the episode.
So good time to tell you people

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what's going to happen in this
episode.

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We're going to talk about with
the reviewing of this last week,

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we're talking about we're doing
some rankings watch chat and

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what the importance of those
numbers and have what they'll

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mean.
And then we're going to talk

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about the one that you just
said, the winners versus the

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unforced errors stats.
That'll be interesting.

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And then we're going to finish
off with the second week of the

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A.
Yes, to finish this week, we're

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just sort of summarising because
all the big matches that will

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determine the winner are going
to happen this second week.

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But the star of this first week,
or I'll mention later on it in

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isolation, Ivor Jovic, who's a
star who's been known on the

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circuit for a while because she
won the Orange Bowl as a junior

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at about the age of 13.
She won the Orange Bowl in

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America and she's been known to
the tennis community for a

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while.
But she's really made her first

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big breakthrough at a major Slam
this week by winning four

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matches.
And we'll talk in detail about

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her because it won't be a
surprise that Player of the week

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she might surface then.
Ah, drama over her.

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OK, so we on to rankings.
Watch We Are.

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This week we've got for you Game
Set and Search and Game Set and

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Reset.
Yes, each week we're going to

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pick out just a handful of
players who are on the up in the

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rankings and therefore doing
really well in terms of their

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current form and those players
who going the other way, bit

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like top of the pots in the 80s.
Just like top of the pots?

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Absolutely.
And we're just as popular.

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So for the tennis numptys, would
you like me to try and explain

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how the WTA rankings points work
and then you can tweak what I've

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said?
Or maybe we should do it the

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other way so we don't.
No, let's do it this way.

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Around Off you go then Katie.
So for every 52 weeks, the

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players play around the world in
all these tournaments and each

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of the tournaments has got a
rankings number of points which

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they can receive.
It'll be the WTA 125 or 250 or

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500 or 1000.
So they can go along and they

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know the number of points that
they can potentially bag, but it

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is a rolling 52 weeks.
And therefore if they've won,

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for example, your Coco Golf, no,
let's do Madison Keys, your

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Madison Keys and you've won the
Australian Open last year.

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That was fabulous.
But at the end of the Australian

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Open, your points fall off
unless you've won them again.

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So Madison Keys coming into the
Australian Open is defending her

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points and she can't do
anything.

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She can't go up, She can't do a
game set and surge because she's

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already at the top for this, but
she can had some fall off.

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Whereas somebody who's like
Jovic who's come out of

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relatively fewer points, she's
come along and she's bagging

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more and more points.
So she's going to be somewhere

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in the game set and surge
department I would imagine.

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So just to interrupt in your
explanation.

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Yeah, go for it.
Players that are new to the

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tour, so a young player like
Jovic, she's only 18, she's not

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really had a full season on
tour.

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The first full season on tour
where you're playing week in

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week out is a free run.
Whatever points you gain a rule

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game.
Because last year you weren't

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there.
Because last year you possibly

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didn't play in a given week the
likes of Madison Keys.

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As you rightly said, they won
the Australian Open last year in

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January. 12 months later, the
Australian Open comes again and

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the point she won last year fall
off as the tournament starts.

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And if she doesn't win the same
amount of points, her ranking is

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going to drop by the difference.
That's exactly what I just said.

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Yes, I know.
I got it.

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I've got it.
So I hope, Chalk Guster, you've

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got it too.
Can I just go into a bit of

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detail then?
Please do delve into the detail.

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Because I wanted to explain it
from a different way, in terms

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of what it takes to be the world
number one in terms of points.

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Great.
Roughly in the Sabalenka has

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10,000 points at any point in
the year.

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She fluctuates either side of
10,000 points, but that's what

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it takes to be world #1.
OK, that's a lot of points.

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It is a Grand Slam, wins you
2000 points.

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There are at least 10 WTA 1000
event, which is the second

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biggest type of event.
So roughly if you win 2 grand

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slams and save 6 WTA 1000
events, there's your 10,000

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points.
Easy.

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We'll just we'll start tomorrow.
Should we?

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World number 28000 points.
Quite a big drop.

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Then yes.
So the gap between Arena

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Sabalenko and Eagus One tech,
again, it fluctuates, but at the

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moment it's about 2000 points.
And that's because with every

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winner, there's a loser.
Yes, World rank 3 to 6.

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They're roughly between 5 1/2
and 6 1/2 thousand points and

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top ten.
You need 3000 points or more.

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And that's not an empiric
number, it's just how it pans

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out.
That's how it's consistently

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panned out.
I've I've rounded those numbers

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up, They're all in sort of 3126
or whatever, but that gives you

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an indicator when I go down
this, people might say what does

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it take to be in the top 100?
When we look at, I think we're

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going to discuss a little bit
where is actually professional

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sport?
Where is the line?

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I consider you a professional
sportsperson in women's tennis.

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Well, I've mentioned the top
ten, top 20,000 points, so

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there's quite a big difference
between Arena Sabalenka 10,000

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points, someone like Eva Jovic
who's just coming into the top

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20 with 2000 points.
But also not much of a gap

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00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,160
between 2003 thousand.
I think you said about #10 is

226
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,120
3000, so there's a much smaller
gap.

227
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,800
And then and the margins you'll
notice get tighter and tighter,

228
00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,960
closer and closer to be a seed
at the Grand Slams, which is

229
00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,320
sort of Emma Radikani.
You'll have heard a lot about

230
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,040
her trying to get in the top 32
in the world rankings, 32 seeds

231
00:12:53,040 --> 00:13:00,080
at the big events, 1300 points,
1400 points, top 51,100 points

232
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:06,600
and very little between top 50
and a seeded position, top

233
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,560
hundred 750 points.
So again, only about 300 points

234
00:13:10,560 --> 00:13:15,000
between 50th place and 100th
place in the rankings.

235
00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:21,360
So it's just striking me now the
finally the the winner of the AO

236
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:27,200
will get 2000 points.
The person who lost in the final

237
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,440
will get. 1300 points.
OK, so it's not a mathematically

238
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,800
hardbeat time.
It's not a fast set.

239
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,560
I'll run through.
If you win a match, you're

240
00:13:37,560 --> 00:13:40,680
getting 70 points at the
Australian Open, Two matches,

241
00:13:40,680 --> 00:13:47,240
130, then it goes to 4437.
Eighty 1800 as as I said for

242
00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,960
runner.
Up and you only get 2, but you

243
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,440
only get the number of points on
your the final round.

244
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,080
You don't.
They're not added, they're not

245
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,760
accumulative.
The ranking is actually they

246
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:02,360
daily so they they will give you
your current points and you'll

247
00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,160
see either A+ or minus figure on
the rankings.

248
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,880
If you wanted to look up on the
Internet I've been WTA rankings.

249
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,680
Click on the live link you'll
see the rankings.

250
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,440
There's lots of numbers there
but it's fairly obvious a column

251
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:19,080
of the current points they've
got and then in tiny colours

252
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,640
green plus or minus.
In red, you see the winners and

253
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,000
losers in terms of the current
event.

254
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:29,640
So it is daily and you do
accumulate the marginal number

255
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:30,600
of points.
Lovely.

256
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,320
I think we've we've delved into
that.

257
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:38,000
Can I just say because in terms
of if you were ranked one

258
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:43,920
thousandth in the world on the
WTA, you currently have 19,

259
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:49,160
19.19 point.
If you had 100 points, another

260
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,120
81 points, you jump up to nearly
500 in the world.

261
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,400
So the 80 points differential
between person ranked actually

262
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,480
520 second at the moment has to
be 100.

263
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,400
And the people who are ranked
1000 jointly thousands in the

264
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:11,360
world have 19 points, which
tells you there's roughly 1200

265
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,480
for 1500 people with a world
ranking.

266
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:20,160
Let's tie the ranking up with,
are we whatever the word

267
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,960
professional means.
So when I was younger,

268
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,080
professional meant, which is
such a nebulous word, but

269
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,000
professional meant you could you
earning you earning your keep.

270
00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:35,840
This was the way that you got
your, this was your job and it

271
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,680
kept your head above the water.
So at how many points or at what

272
00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:47,640
ranking would you have to be to
earn enough money to put your

273
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,920
dinner on the table?
This is this is one of very much

274
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:55,320
of longevity and whether you can
do the hard yards if you if

275
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,200
you're ranked in the top 100 and
you're getting in direct entry

276
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:04,840
into a W TA-250 event or even a
WTA 500 event or the higher

277
00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,600
ranked players who are getting
into all the big events, they're

278
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,600
really well looked after.
So they're accommodation costs

279
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,960
are paid for, they get support
at the events, yeah, don't they?

280
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,920
They get, they get a certain
allowance, all the events,

281
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,560
they're well looked after, the
transports arranged for them,

282
00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,120
that's the accommodation if they
want.

283
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,240
A lot of the top players won't
actually take that up, they will

284
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,520
just do their own thing.
But not for their team, just for

285
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,080
them.
Just for them, but they tend to

286
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,360
get houses, as you know in
Wimbledon and the team stays

287
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,160
with the player.
But the lower ranked players are

288
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,720
doing what all of us would do.
We were just going somewhere and

289
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,200
we wanted the cheap a cheap
week.

290
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,080
So imagine we're young.
We're.

291
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,200
Having an Airbnb RAM.
Exactly.

292
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,800
And we're, we're living as
cheaply as possible, but we

293
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,400
we're investing our time in
viewing and sightseeing

294
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,480
etcetera.
Well, they're not sightseeing as

295
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,240
much as they're just descending
on where the tennis is happening

296
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,359
and practising and getting ready
for matches and playing the

297
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,839
matches etcetera.
But they don't really need

298
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:10,920
anything more than a box room.
To join and a gym, although each

299
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:12,640
of the tournaments will have a
gym inside.

300
00:17:13,079 --> 00:17:15,440
Yeah.
But the cost is something that

301
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:19,200
specifics we don't have.
We're going to hopefully talk to

302
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,280
a player who can tell us exactly
the type of cost they play.

303
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,119
But I can give you some of the
earnings.

304
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,359
Heather Watson listeners might
know who's a long standing

305
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,560
British player who's now
approaching their mid 30s coming

306
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,920
to the end of their career,
hasn't played yet in 2026.

307
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:41,680
She's been playing for 15 years
as an adult on the tour and has

308
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,040
been as ranked as high as 38.
OK, very high, but.

309
00:17:45,120 --> 00:17:49,600
Her ranking is now sort of over
200, but most of her singles

310
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,360
career has been around the 100
to 150 mark.

311
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,960
And this is what I would have
said 10 years ago.

312
00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:01,600
If you said, are you making more
money than Dan as a head teacher

313
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:06,360
recently, after all your costs,
after your tax, your sort of net

314
00:18:06,360 --> 00:18:10,000
takeaway, I would have said
150th in the world.

315
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,520
You'd be struggling to take home
A6 figure.

316
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,760
So you're talking somewhere
between 50 and 80,000 lbs net

317
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,840
income if you were ranked 150 in
the world.

318
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,240
I think that's slightly pushed
back now.

319
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:26,880
I think if you're in the top
200.

320
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,040
And as the business person in
this team, I'm going to say,

321
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,840
obviously the head teachers earn
a salary and the tax is taken

322
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,360
straight off, whereas these
people are presumably not, well,

323
00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:39,520
they're not earning a salary.
This is their business.

324
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,240
They take all their expenses out
of their income and they put the

325
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,040
profit in their company In these
in the early days when they're

326
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,800
not earning very much is
probably negligible, if at all.

327
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,600
So tax will be low, will be
probably nothing.

328
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,320
I suppose some players will do
that really well and other

329
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,400
players will minimise their what
they make.

330
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,960
But going back to Heather
Watson, her earnings is

331
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:05,200
$5,000,000 / 15 years and she's
played singles and doubles but

332
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,800
she's never been in the top 37
in the world.

333
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,760
So there's a player just through
longevity, fifteens into 5

334
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:19,680
million, it's somewhere between
250 and 500,000, isn't it?

335
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:24,640
So it's it's roughly $375,000 a
year she's making on average

336
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,680
before tax and before all her
costs.

337
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:33,040
Expenses.
And that is just a prize money.

338
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:38,040
Any sponsorship deals, any
racket, any clothing deals, any

339
00:19:38,360 --> 00:19:42,960
Tiffany or Porsche or HSBC or
Emirates, that's all separate.

340
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,560
Yes.
But again, I think for most

341
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,840
players, if we went back to
Heather Watson's sort of first

342
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:53,480
five years before social media,
before the things about what

343
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,840
we're looking into last week, a
little bit in terms of player

344
00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,800
reach, in terms of their numbers
of followers, the things that

345
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,920
brands might be interested in
now that didn't exist, of course

346
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,280
players are getting.
All their equipment free, and

347
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,440
they're getting clothing free,
and they're getting paid for

348
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,880
using rackets and wearing the
clothing once they get to the

349
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,800
top 100.
But those, like anything, the

350
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,560
amount they're paid in the
sponsorship deals massively

351
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,720
rises as soon as they're in the
top sort of 32 in the world.

352
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,640
OK.
So I think just to round that

353
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,160
off, Harriet Dart was another
player listeners will know of.

354
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,600
The highest single ranking is
70.

355
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,160
She's slightly younger than
Heather Watson, she's coming up

356
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:40,440
to 30, but she's just slipped
outside the top 200 and her

357
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,400
journey has been very much
swimming in the lower tier

358
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,400
tournaments.
Her big paydays is Wimbledon,

359
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,880
the odd Grand Slam when she's
got into the main draws and her

360
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:54,360
earnings were down to $3,000,000
/ 12 year period.

361
00:20:55,360 --> 00:20:59,880
So averaging out not dissimilar
to Heather Watson, I think they

362
00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:06,840
are making somewhere between 100
and 150,000 lbs net including

363
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,240
their sponsorship bills.
To be fair, they haven't got any

364
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,280
time to spend it.
It's a very busy year, isn't?

365
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,080
It So I would say unless you're
going to burst and rise up the

366
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:20,680
rankings from 200 and keep
rising players outside the top

367
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,440
200 who stay outside the top
200, it's a struggle.

368
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,800
OK, well make that a lesson to
all you aspiring tennis players.

369
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,480
Be the very best.
Not pretty good.

370
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,760
So we're going to look at
Madison Keys just before we go

371
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,560
and look at who's on the Surge,
who's on the app.

372
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,800
So Madison Keys having won the
Australian Open a year ago and

373
00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:50,000
from outside the top 10 to being
a permanent fixture inside the

374
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,360
top 10 for the entire entirety
of 2025.

375
00:21:53,360 --> 00:21:57,600
Those 2000 points elevated her
into the top ten and she stayed

376
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,280
there for the whole year.
And she didn't actually have a

377
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,160
great year.
After about March, her results

378
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:09,640
were, if you like, not terrible
but certainly nowhere near the

379
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,480
start she had.
And she reached the WTA Finals

380
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,760
on the back of winning in
January. 11 months later, in

381
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:21,000
November, she was still in the
top eight Last Monday at the

382
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:24,720
start of the Australian Open,
immediately, 52 weeks on, the

383
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:29,720
2000 points dropped off.
But the good news is she won her

384
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,120
first round, her second round,
and she's won her third round,

385
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:38,720
so she's clawed back 240 points.
So her difference at the moment

386
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:45,720
is -1760 and if she loses to
Pegula, that will come off come

387
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,800
Monday.
OK.

388
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,960
Just a technicality then as a
numpty, it's 52 weeks, it's not

389
00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:53,320
52 weeks since she won them.
Is it because the club

390
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,640
tournament lasts 2 weeks?
So if you detail, I'm just

391
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,880
asking you some detail now.
Is it the beginning of the next

392
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:05,080
time this tournament starts and.
Yeah, it's a fluid 52 week

393
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,360
rolling programme.
I think in the first episode I

394
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:12,040
talked about 51 weeks and a bit.
But if you look at the rankings

395
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,920
on the Internet, you will see
Madison Keys live ranking is

396
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:20,400
15th in the world at her point.
Show this green or red figure

397
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,720
alongside her running total.
At the moment it says minus 176

398
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,520
O because that figure is in
relation to a year ago because

399
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,480
of whether it's 51 weeks, 52
weeks.

400
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,800
Or I guess you can't.
What it's saying and what you're

401
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:38,760
saying is you can't have points
from the same tournament 2 years

402
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,560
in a row at the same time.
Exactly.

403
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,520
OK, that lovely I've got that
fixed up in my mind now.

404
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,360
In terms of her rankings, she
dropped seven or eight places,

405
00:23:48,360 --> 00:23:51,640
which is a big drop for her when
you're right at the top.

406
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,280
So we're going to do game set
and search 1st, or you want to

407
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,600
do game set and reset first,
going up, going down.

408
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,360
What do you think, Katie?
Let's do going up first like

409
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,720
game set and Surge goes to Eva
Jovic.

410
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,720
Yes.
Well, there's no surprises

411
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,760
there.
She's had a great January and

412
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,000
we're not yet at the end of the
month, are we?

413
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,480
Could she be Irina Sabalenka
tomorrow?

414
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:19,120
When I say tomorrow tomorrow in
in UK time, it's more like 36

415
00:24:19,120 --> 00:24:23,120
hours away, but she is now
ranked 20th in the world and

416
00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:27,760
she's gained over 500 points
since the Australian swing

417
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,920
started 100 weeks coming into
this week and having reached the

418
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:37,960
quarterfinals, she's jumped up
the rankings great.

419
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:43,160
So remember what I said, the
difference between 50th and the

420
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:49,520
top 20 was 900 points, 700
points to be in the top, 52,000

421
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,080
to be in the top 20.
And she's basically gone from

422
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,520
being in the mid 40s to now
being 20th in the world.

423
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,800
Fantastic world on her,
congratulations.

424
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,320
Victoria M Boco.
Is another game set and surge.

425
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:08,840
Has also gained 500 points in
the last few weeks so I'm

426
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,880
rounding these figures.
I'm not going to bore you with

427
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,960
the exact figures, but it's
both.

428
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,680
These two players are
highlighted as making the

429
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,760
biggest surge at the rankings
and she's only gone up six

430
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,480
places because she was ranked
19th in the world coming into

431
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,120
this week.
But her fourth round appearance

432
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:30,640
coupled with her getting to the
final previous week in Adelaide

433
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,840
meaning that she's now 13th in
the world.

434
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,800
You see, I think in Boko being
19 in the world, I'm pretty sure

435
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,440
that most people on the Clapham
of the bus would not have heard

436
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,920
of from Boko, but she's 19th in
the world.

437
00:25:43,120 --> 00:25:46,320
This is the greatness of WTA
tennis.

438
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,400
It is and she really pushed Saba
Lenka in the second set today

439
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,560
and last year she won in
Montreal, which is a big UTA

440
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,520
1000 event, a player capable of
beating anyone on their day.

441
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,360
Yes.
So I'm just going to mention

442
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:06,440
another one other young lady
who's now 44th in the world,

443
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,840
Teresa Valentova.
She had a match against Rebecca

444
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,720
now only yesterday.
I think it was lost in the third

445
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,920
round, but she had two good wins
again this week.

446
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,840
He's not quite an M Boker and
Jovic level yet, but she's a

447
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,880
Czech player now in the top 50
and definitely a player to

448
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:29,360
watch.
And finally, a Turkish player

449
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:35,320
who drew some reactions from her
opponent as well as her

450
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:39,400
supporters this week when she
played Punt and Sava Zaynet

451
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,640
Somnez.
Was for you to say.

452
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:48,400
Was ranked 110th in the world by
having a good week and coming

453
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,640
through two rounds, she's gone
from 110th to 79th.

454
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,440
That's a big jump that makes a
big difference to a player being

455
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,440
those 30 places higher and Yulia
punt and save.

456
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,080
If we were doing game set and
reset the players on the down,

457
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,080
that was Yulia punt and save
might have been mentioned every

458
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,120
week, but she really struggled
to win a match last season and

459
00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:13,760
she'd fallen perously closed
outside the top 100.

460
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:19,880
Right now in 2024 at Wimbledon,
Yulia Hunt and saver the Eagus

461
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,680
One Tech in the third round.
It was a big shock at Wimbledon

462
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,920
only a year before Eagus one
Tech 1 Wimbledon.

463
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,760
So she's a player.
Two seasons ago was in the top

464
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,280
50 in the world.
Because can I just clarify, I

465
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,800
think this is this.
These WTA rankings are a net 0

466
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,120
sum game, aren't they?
Therefore, one man's going up is

467
00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:44,000
another man's going down, that
there's no way you can't do 1

468
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,920
without the other.
Yes, one woman's gain is another

469
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,760
woman.
Of course.

470
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,680
So 3 youngsters all under 20
doing really well at the start

471
00:27:53,680 --> 00:28:00,840
of 2026 and two sort of journey
woman staying inside the top 80,

472
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,320
both having a good week in that
punt and sailor.

473
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,320
I don't think she can believe
that she's got through to the

474
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,880
fourth round.
But as she found out today, when

475
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:12,440
you do play the Evajovic's of
this world, you do well to win a

476
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:17,120
game because she lost 6 love 61.
But at least she got a cheer for

477
00:28:17,120 --> 00:28:19,560
winning a game.
Which is quite ironic because

478
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:24,680
she was very vocal with her
demonstrations to all the vocal

479
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,120
support that the Turkish player
got.

480
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,400
And she started doing some well,
taking on the crowd with her

481
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,920
jigs and her dancers.
So the irony of today getting a

482
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,120
big cheer because she just won
one game didn't doesn't go

483
00:28:37,120 --> 00:28:39,800
unnoticed by me anyway.
There's the detail.

484
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,360
So now going down the charts, as
it were.

485
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:48,880
Game set and reset.
We'll start with Paula Bedosa.

486
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:50,120
Gosh.
She's had a year.

487
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,600
Yes.
Do you want to expand on Pala

488
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,000
Bedosa?
Well, I'm not sure if what we

489
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,680
have on Pala Bedosa is probably
best kept between.

490
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,320
Us OK, but she you've got a
friend in Wimbledon who was

491
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,640
helping her with her
accommodation, put it that way

492
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,080
last summer.
Yes, and let's say that it was

493
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,840
around the same time she was
putting up with her lovely

494
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:16,880
boyfriend and the neighbours
felt included in their demise.

495
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,080
I'm leaving it at that.
Over to you and not moving on.

496
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,600
OK, well back to her tennis the
start of this year.

497
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,400
It was really another return to
court after a spell on the

498
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,120
sidelines due to constant
injuries, back injury in

499
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,960
particular.
Very difficult to compete at the

500
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,240
highest level.
But a year ago she did get to

501
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,360
the semi final.
So as you now know, that's a lot

502
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:44,120
of points that were up for
falling off.

503
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,640
And she did manage one win, but
she lost in the second round.

504
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,400
And although she was seeded 25th
coming into the Australian Open,

505
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:56,640
she's lost 780 points, which is
the biggest loser at the moment,

506
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,760
and she's dropped 64th in the
world.

507
00:29:59,960 --> 00:30:03,480
That's nearly 40 places.
As we said, someone's going up,

508
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,840
someone's going down.
Another player I would be a

509
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:11,320
little bit worried for is Emma
Navarro, who is now outside the

510
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,960
top 10.
She's down to 17th in the world,

511
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:19,760
having lost 420 points this
event because she lost early on.

512
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,600
And many of you may not be aware
of Emma Navarro, but she's an

513
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:28,080
American who beat Osaka at
Wimbledon 2 years ago, won a

514
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,440
couple of smaller WTA events,
and got inside the top ten

515
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,640
highest ranked #7 in the world.
And she's a seed.

516
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,800
And she'll still be a seed at
other events in the next few

517
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,880
months.
But I think she's vulnerable.

518
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,720
OK.
And finally, Anastasia

519
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,760
Pavlichenkova.
Pavlichenkova is a name that you

520
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,880
won't hear much more.
She's in her mid 30s, but she

521
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,640
got to the quarterfinals last
year at the Australian Open, not

522
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,680
so good this year, lost early
and has lost 420 points as well

523
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:03,360
and is now on the cusp of going
outside the top 198 in the

524
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,760
world.
And so what's interesting about

525
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,160
players falling out and falling
down the rankings?

526
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,000
There's a little small number of
players who you can look at, you

527
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,560
can see their ages on the
rankings and it will tell you in

528
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,280
years and months where they're
at.

529
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,760
And Padlikenko, there's one of
those players who's 30 something

530
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,960
and she's really signing off.
So she's having a year where

531
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,480
she's just taking advantage of
her ranking from the previous

532
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,960
year and just playing whatever
she chooses to pick up the prize

533
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,560
money, even if it means just the
prize money is the first round

534
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,120
loss.
So she's really just adding to

535
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,160
her retirement pot.
But is that also that also plays

536
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,360
to the discussions we've had
before about when somebody

537
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,200
announces this will be my final
year and then they do another

538
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,440
year and presumably in order to
fill their pension cost a

539
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,920
little, but the lack of pressure
on them because this is my final

540
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,640
year.
I think Danielle Collins did

541
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,680
this.
She says you're going to retire.

542
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,040
She takes the final year because
of the lack of pressure.

543
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,960
She does brilliantly.
So she ends up not retiring.

544
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,040
Story like that.
Yes, I mean, the players

545
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:14,080
wouldn't be this open and honest
and we're kind of well.

546
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,400
It did say in the introduction
that we were going to be open

547
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:17,520
and honest.
We better be.

548
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,520
OK, this is simplifying it a
little bit, but you're quite

549
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,400
right.
Danielle Collins had a great

550
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,360
year.
She won a big event in Miami.

551
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,960
She went from being ranked
around 50 in the world to

552
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,360
getting back inside the top ten.
You're not going to give that up

553
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,240
easily.
But because she'd announced that

554
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,560
this was her last year.
Before she got all those wins.

555
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,560
All these results kind of
possibly changed her mind.

556
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,040
They would change mine.
And they did change hers, didn't

557
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,440
they?
Yeah, she talked about having a

558
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,080
family and setting up her
private lives and doing all

559
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,320
that.
Now, whatever the personal

560
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,240
details, she came back on to
court.

561
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,640
And temporarily, was she still
here?

562
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,880
Yeah, she's doing media work now
for the Tennis Channel in

563
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,400
America because she's injured,
so she's not played the

564
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,600
Australian Open, but she's
indicated she's coming back to

565
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,120
court this year, so she's not
fully retired.

566
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,640
But yes, you have to be careful
with some players.

567
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,800
You think, why aren't they
performing?

568
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,320
I don't think they're trying to
lose or not trying to win.

569
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:17,960
They're just taking what they
can.

570
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,880
Yeah, it makes sense.
I think a lot of careers have

571
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,080
that in it.
So that's our rankings.

572
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:24,880
Watch for this week.
Thank you.

573
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:30,560
And our final section is going
to be about talking about the

574
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,120
winners and the unforced errors
ratio.

575
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,560
Yes, with the second week of the
Australian Open in mind.

576
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,640
So rather than just thinking,
OK, how these quarterfinals and

577
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:44,320
last few rounds going likely to
go, going to highlight a couple

578
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:49,280
of statistics, which isn't the
whole picture, but is a very key

579
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:54,960
factor I believe in the outcomes
of matches and so how this could

580
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:56,800
play out.
So I'm going to talk a little

581
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:01,160
bit about winners and unforced
errors ratio, which is a stat

582
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:05,920
that exists for all the tennis
sorts of detailed people out

583
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,880
there and you'll hear reference
to it on the from the

584
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,760
commentators.
So just for the numpties amongst

585
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:18,080
us, including myself, unforced
error is and thank you, an error

586
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:22,520
which which happens not because
your player do it, your your

587
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,360
opponent forced you to do it,
but because you lost

588
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,960
concentration or you just, you
made a mistake.

589
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,360
You you hit the net, somebody in
the crowd popped a champagne

590
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,320
cork and and and you sent them
all flying, flying off.

591
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,679
Yeah, it's an error you
shouldn't have made, and it's

592
00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:39,360
not being forced by the
opponent.

593
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,560
So as effectively you are losing
it instead of being made to lose

594
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:44,480
it.
Exactly.

595
00:34:44,679 --> 00:34:47,320
OK.
And then the winners clarify me

596
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,440
what exactly how you would
define a winner?

597
00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:53,199
That's a that's like a clean
ace, or where the opponent's not

598
00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:55,320
got a racket on the ball, but
the ball's gone past them.

599
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,040
OK.
And so that is absolutely I've

600
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,320
won that point and I have I will
take total credit for that.

601
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,720
They didn't fluff it up on the
other side.

602
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,240
I won it.
Yes.

603
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,360
And so these percentages that
I'm going to quote or the ratio

604
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,280
is not the whole part of it.
So these percentages won't add

605
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,840
up to 100%.
Yes, because there are other

606
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,920
points and ways to and lose.
Forced errors, we've kind of

607
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,240
distinguished between unforced
errors and forced errors, the

608
00:35:22,240 --> 00:35:26,520
opponents winning of points, how
they've influenced.

609
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:31,040
There are lots of other things.
So we're going to see some big

610
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:35,600
names come face to face over
with the Keen, the Swan Tech all

611
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,560
going to fight out this bottom
half.

612
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,360
Jessica Pagula, they've all got
to play each other before the

613
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,520
final where it looks
increasingly likely that

614
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,200
probably Arena Sabalenka.
Well, I talked to you about

615
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,160
Arena Sabalenka, Victoria and
Boto's match earlier today

616
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:56,360
overnight, how good the quality
was and This is why Sabalenka

617
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:00,960
had a win winners to unforced
errors ratio of +7.

618
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:05,160
She hit seven more winners than
her unforced error count, and

619
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:10,520
Boko was very close to being
exactly the same, but she was -1

620
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,200
meaning she hit one more error,
unforced error than her winners.

621
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,960
Now, those figures don't mean a
lot, but I can tell you that if

622
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,320
your ratio is a plus figure and
you've hit more winners in the

623
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,680
professional women's game,
that's excellent.

624
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,680
Well, if you're doing more
unforced errors than winners,

625
00:36:27,720 --> 00:36:31,200
you're getting in your own way.
You're you're, you are actively

626
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,840
losing the match.
Whereas if you're doing more

627
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,440
winners, you're actively winning
the match.

628
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,520
Yes, the game.
The game's become much more more

629
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,760
risk and reward, so people will
hear words like staying

630
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,040
aggressive, not becoming too
passive.

631
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,960
This was very much a feature of
Andy Murray's career.

632
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,520
Lendl came on board and people
will be aware of that kind of

633
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,800
language.
Marine mustn't get too passive.

634
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,480
Stay aggressive.
And what's happened in the men's

635
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,720
game has naturally filtered the
cross into the women's game.

636
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:02,920
Certain elements.
It's the same sport, after all.

637
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:07,360
The top women, in fact, I think
virtually all the top 50 now,

638
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:11,000
are approaching the game largely
with the same strategy.

639
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:12,760
They just haven't got the same
weapons.

640
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,400
Some of a foot taller, almost.
And another player, OK, I'm

641
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,440
exaggerated, 6 inch, 6 to 8
inches taller than another

642
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,000
player.
So they can't all have an

643
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,360
amazing serve.
Just physiologically, some have

644
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,280
better movement, but
fundamentally the game has got a

645
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,120
lot more aggressive.
You've got to take on the risk.

646
00:37:31,240 --> 00:37:34,520
And we saw it today with Andreva
against Vitalina.

647
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:39,320
Andreva just didn't turn up, but
what she did try to attack with

648
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,760
was just going out all the time.
So lots of unforced errors and

649
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:46,640
certainly no winners.
In fact, in terms of her ratio

650
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:51,600
today, she was at -12.
Oh, it was so frustrating to

651
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:56,120
watch the number of times just
for what appeared to me.

652
00:37:56,280 --> 00:38:00,240
Obviously I'm not in her head,
I'm not on her court, I've not

653
00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:03,520
got the sun beating down on me.
But although it was, it was a

654
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,280
night match, wasn't it?
It?

655
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,320
She just felt like she was just
putting them into the net and

656
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,160
outside the outside the lines.
And you've kind of as a as a

657
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,280
tennis dumpty, you'd sort of
think, look, you've got one job

658
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,400
over the net and inside the
lines.

659
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,160
Let the other person make the
mistakes.

660
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,840
Yes, just we can talk about
Andrea, the psychology of the

661
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,880
sport, but to focus on the
winners, on forced errors, yes,

662
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:29,000
she was -12.
Svitalina won the match 6264,

663
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,120
but her ratio was -4.
Really.

664
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,880
Yes.
So it's interesting in in

665
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:40,320
respect of that Savalenka and
Boko match -1 and both go lost

666
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:44,760
with a ratio of -1 against the
best possible opponent.

667
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:49,560
On paper, Spitalina ranked 12/13
in the world, slightly lower

668
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:54,240
ranked than Andrava and Drave.
It was very much a case of as if

669
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:58,280
her head wasn't connected to her
limbs and what her head was

670
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,600
thinking about wasn't really
connected.

671
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,400
And it wasn't all happening in
terms of she was looking at her

672
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,720
racket as if it was an alien
being and not really working the

673
00:39:06,720 --> 00:39:09,920
way she but.
Also, with both of those two

674
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,600
being minus numbers, I won't ask
you now because I'm sure you'd

675
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,560
have to delve into the details,
but there must be some other

676
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,400
point that they were doing
really well.

677
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,480
Yes, but you have to remember
very few winners, clean winners

678
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,240
where the ball goes past the
opponent.

679
00:39:24,240 --> 00:39:27,400
They've moved so well now a lot
of the time they lay their

680
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:31,120
racket on the ball, but it goes
in the net or goes off out the

681
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,040
court.
So they're kind of forced

682
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,240
errors, which will be a big
percentage of the game.

683
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:40,840
This isn't the entirety.
I know you said that at the

684
00:39:41,240 --> 00:39:43,840
beginning.
In terms of Coco Goff, and This

685
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,600
is why I really struggle with
Coco Goff winning, although a

686
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,720
lot of people see her name at
the Atlanta stages of the

687
00:39:49,720 --> 00:39:51,920
tournament and think, yes, she
again, she's in the

688
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,480
quarterfinals here, she could
win it.

689
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:58,680
Her last two matches, her ratios
have both been minus figures,

690
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:08,400
and not just just minus figures,
but it's 12 -, 13 minus. 8 She's

691
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,400
not playing anywhere near as
well as Sabalenka and you can

692
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,520
argue the strength of the
opposition, but for me, you

693
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,920
watch golf and everything is
you're apprehensive.

694
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,400
Her team look apprehensive on
the sidelines.

695
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,000
She's relieved to win, she's not
showing joy.

696
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:28,200
So look out for that.
But I looked at the winners on a

697
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:32,280
site, tennisabstract.com, which
is a great statistical site for

698
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,240
tennis.
It keeps up to date with all the

699
00:40:34,240 --> 00:40:36,200
stats.
Again, a bit like the rankings

700
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:41,200
over a 52 week period.
And you can see over the last

701
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,480
year how many matches players
have played and how many winners

702
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:45,920
and unforced errors they've
made.

703
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,440
There's no all the data you
could possibly look at, but just

704
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:55,280
on that bit of data, Amanda
Anisimova has hit something like

705
00:40:55,600 --> 00:41:02,800
or 1500 unforced errors and over
1200 winners in the last 46

706
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,640
matches she's played.
The most recent 46 matches she's

707
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,680
played, which covers most of
last year, her percentage of

708
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:14,280
points that she makes an
unforced error is 22% and a

709
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,480
percentage of points she hits a
winner is 19%.

710
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:19,680
Now the winners percentage is
great.

711
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,600
She's right at the top.
OK.

712
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:26,240
So 19 is really high.
Arena Sabalenka 1% less 18%.

713
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,480
But then you have to be pulled
back by the.

714
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:32,760
If you look at the percentage of
unforced errors, Savalenka 6%

715
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,920
lower, she's at 16%.
She's only hitting an unforced

716
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,600
error 16% of the points.
Played.

717
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:43,680
I'm going to put a link through
to the WTA website where you can

718
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,840
see the figures that you're
talking about in the notes for

719
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:47,720
this.
Odd.

720
00:41:47,720 --> 00:41:49,040
OK.
That'll be helpful.

721
00:41:49,240 --> 00:41:52,120
And it's really important that
when you're looking at the

722
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,960
matchups that are coming over
this second week, it's very

723
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:59,600
likely that Arena Sabalenka,
unless she has an emotional

724
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,240
meltdown, which she's referenced
this week in her match with

725
00:42:02,240 --> 00:42:07,120
Potipova, she can't be beaten.
The matches against Jovic and

726
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,840
Goth or Spitter Leader are
totally on her racket.

727
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,080
You know, assuming she stays fit
and healthy, she's in the final

728
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,480
for me.
In terms of the bottom half,

729
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:20,800
it's really a case of whether
Jessica Pagula's steadiness and

730
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,200
ability to get all the balls
back deep enough while staying

731
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,800
in the court because she's a
very steady player on hardcore

732
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:32,120
win the day over Anderson.
Well, Madison Keys 1st and Anna

733
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,040
Simova and then either Rebecca
nor Swan Tech.

734
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,640
And what's interesting about the
Gula is she's the worst type of

735
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,640
opponent for all these big
hitters because they know she's

736
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,640
just waiting for them to explode
now.

737
00:42:43,720 --> 00:42:48,840
And Anna Simova knows 22% of the
time Jessica is expecting me to

738
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,360
hit it out of court.
So it's a race to the finish.

739
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:55,400
Whether Anna Samova's winners
gets a gets ahead of the

740
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,480
unforced errors because she can
blow her opponent off the court.

741
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,480
But Gula just keeps hit over the
net and in the lines and then

742
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,720
she can let the others lose the
match.

743
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,600
Yes.
And then at your level, hitting

744
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,600
it over the net.
It's very high level.

745
00:43:10,240 --> 00:43:13,480
Shot Gusters hitting the ball
over the net is not good if you

746
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,840
were playing me.
But at a professional level,

747
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,400
what we mean is as a derogatory
term, it means you're putting it

748
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,480
in awkward positions of deep and
difficult.

749
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:26,840
The Gula has a four to one head
to head record over Anderson

750
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,040
over as well.
So I believe if the Gula gets

751
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,400
through her course her fourth
round with Madison Keys and

752
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,560
they're very good friends,
that's a very difficult match to

753
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,200
call.
But on form the Gula wins that.

754
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:42,520
Then I'd be really interested to
see whether Anna Somova gets

755
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,320
through that match, because for
me that's a really smelly match

756
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,560
for Anna Somova.
Going to be a juicy week people.

757
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:54,200
And then the ultimately, to me,
Elena Ravacina should be playing

758
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,680
eager swan tech in the
quarterfinals, unless one of our

759
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,480
friends, Elise Mertens, was as a
shock.

760
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,520
Elisa yes, well, that would be
great.

761
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,280
And you've sat with her mum.
I have yeah, but we I met her

762
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:11,840
mum at a very low was it 100 and
WTA 125 tournament.

763
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:15,280
First WTA event of 2020 in
Shenzhen.

764
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:19,320
Just before COVID, the month of
COVID, it must have been January

765
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:23,240
20.
We were in China and I sat at a

766
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:28,240
a practically empty stadium
watching Elisa Mertens play

767
00:44:28,240 --> 00:44:30,520
Belinda Bench.
Bench was the number one seed

768
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,320
but no it was a first round
opponent but.

769
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,240
OK, and I was sitting next to
the only.

770
00:44:35,240 --> 00:44:38,840
Other call it it was a
Ukrainian, but I the name is

771
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,480
Sorenko.
OK.

772
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:48,320
And the only other European
person in probably the city at

773
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:53,440
the time other than you was it
was Elisa's mom.

774
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:59,160
Shout out to Anisa's mom.
So we got chatting and Oh yes,

775
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,400
she lovely lady.
And so we've always followed

776
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,920
Elisa ever since we.
And she was telling us a story.

777
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:09,800
Well, not a story fact that the
US Open women's double S

778
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:14,960
trophies that Elisa had won with
none other than Arena Sabalenka

779
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:20,200
in September 2019 has still to
arrive.

780
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:23,480
And they were literally four or
five months on and that

781
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:27,680
September wind had been flown
and transported across and the

782
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,560
trophies had just arrived or
something.

783
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,160
So that was quite an interesting
little.

784
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,560
And she was saying that some of
the players actually take their

785
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:39,080
trophies with them on the plane
in hand luggage because that's

786
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:40,880
that's just the quicker way of
getting them home.

787
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:43,120
Yeah.
So shout out.

788
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:47,040
Lillian, The reality is that
Elisa's record are going to

789
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:51,200
Rebecca and Elise, something
like 6 to Rebecca and only one

790
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,280
win for Merton.
So it's going to be, It would be

791
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:58,840
a shock, but Rebecca needs her
first serve to work to win.

792
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,800
I said this time last week to
win the Grand Slam, other than

793
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:06,240
Arena Sabalenka, you're going to
have to win three big matches

794
00:46:06,240 --> 00:46:08,920
against top ten, if not top five
players.

795
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:12,280
Batman has got to be
Egashwantek, the Gulu or Anna

796
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:18,360
Samova and Arena Sabalenka.
That's three in a row scenario.

797
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,960
As I said last week, doesn't
happen very often.

798
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,280
And I know that you were saying
this morning when we're talking

799
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:26,560
about it that it also there's a
benefit to the people.

800
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,560
I think this time it's in the
top half of the draw because

801
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:33,920
they get sort of a rest day
between the match that puts them

802
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,440
into the the quarterfinals and
the actual quarterfinals.

803
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,640
Some players will get some extra
time, yes.

804
00:46:40,720 --> 00:46:43,400
I mean it doesn't necessarily
work out as full days because of

805
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,240
the time difference and night
matches and pay matches, but.

806
00:46:46,240 --> 00:46:47,480
It makes a difference, doesn't
it?

807
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,920
The rest it's a bit more.
From the final, one of the

808
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,840
players has had more rest than
the other, always in terms of

809
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:58,840
that hours off off court for me.
Rebecca she served 62% of first

810
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:03,080
serves in her last win against
Valentova in her first round she

811
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,480
was in the low 50% so is
improving, but I would say it

812
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:11,240
needs to get to nearest 70%,
certainly above 65% if she's

813
00:47:11,240 --> 00:47:14,480
going to win three matches of
that ilk in a row.

814
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,800
I suspect she could be English
one tech.

815
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:21,280
But equally, if that unforced
hour count rises and eager swan

816
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:25,200
text hangs around a bit like the
Gula, we could see either Anna

817
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,680
Simova or Rebuffle go out before
the final.

818
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:34,120
And so we've talked about
winners and unforced errors

819
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,120
ratio, we've talked about this
week.

820
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,440
Have you got any other matches
for us to watch this week?

821
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,200
No, I was going to go on to Play
of the week.

822
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,560
Who's your Player of the week?
So the player of the week post

823
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:49,400
prize is Eva Jovic, now ranked
20th in the world, an 18 year

824
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,720
old with Serbian parents.
Will the player of the week

825
00:47:52,720 --> 00:47:55,760
always be the game set and
search lady women?

826
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,880
Not necessarily.
I think you can do lots of

827
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:02,120
things in and around tennis that
give the whole tennis community

828
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,520
a feel good factor.
Yeah, I think there's lots of

829
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,440
good positive work done around
tennis.

830
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:12,000
Or she's a.
Youngster, so it's good to give

831
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,880
her the week to encourage her.
Yes, and I think it's

832
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:18,360
refreshing, especially today
when we saw another teenager,

833
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,840
not yet 20, Andrea, who's been
around longer, really struggling

834
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,200
again with the psychology and
looking like everything was in

835
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:30,760
agony or pain, a difficulty, a
challenge, and almost tears on

836
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,520
court towards the end.
Whereas Jovic is bouncing

837
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:37,120
around, she's in the press
conferences, big smile, she's

838
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,720
playing double S, everything's
just joyous and she's just

839
00:48:40,720 --> 00:48:43,120
enjoying it.
And it it makes a big difference

840
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,960
in terms of that performance.
I've said it before, the more

841
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,560
you smile, the more you win.
Yes, and she's born in America.

842
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,160
Parents are Serbian but she's
been brought up in the American

843
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:57,880
tennis system and was a was a
known star as a as a 13 year

844
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:01,440
old, let alone the age.
She is now 18 but she's expected

845
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,440
to be in the top 10 before much
longer and certainly by the end

846
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:09,120
of the year so look out for her.
She's got a great baseline game

847
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:12,760
and movements great.
The serve is getting better

848
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,120
having watched the double S
today where she lost with M Boca

849
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,360
against Elisa Merton.
Lisa's very good at double.

850
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:23,040
S in a thrilling Mac went to
deciding set tied rate 1210 in

851
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,880
the tied rate.
But that was are rather bizarre

852
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,440
matters because and Boker and
Jovic started on fire.

853
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:32,080
There were five love up in the
first set, but then Mertens and

854
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:36,040
Jang won that set 75 only for
Jovic and then Boker just to

855
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,240
smile their way through the
second set and win that make it

856
00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:42,640
1 set all and we went to a final
set tie break.

857
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:47,040
But Jovic she's just loving life
and phenomenal baseline hitting.

858
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:51,120
Her winners ratio this week is
very good and her unforced error

859
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:55,600
count as you can expect, is low.
She was +2 today and she was

860
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,680
winning her fourth round, so
look out for that match.

861
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:03,560
Arena Sabalenka will probably
win fairly comfortably because

862
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,720
it's a big occasion for the
young American, but she's

863
00:50:06,720 --> 00:50:08,920
definitely a player.
Not just of this week, but

864
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,720
player to watch.
Well, thanks ever so much for

865
00:50:11,720 --> 00:50:13,840
joining us this on this weeks
podcast.

866
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,160
Chuck Gusters.
It's been great to have you

867
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:17,960
here.
Hope you've enjoyed yourselves.

868
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,880
Please follow, share with your
friends and enjoy the rest of

869
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:25,800
the week watching the pre TA and
we'll see you next week.

870
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,800
And we'll be seeing you from a
remote location.

871
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,640
Oh yes, we will.
Well, we'll keep that one up in

872
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:32,280
the air.
Shop it.

873
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,800
Was a surprise.
Anyway, bye for me.

874
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:35,480
Bye.